Nuclear博弈: Why JCPOA Collapsed
Iran’s nuclear issue is the core of US-Iran confrontation—and also the most misunderstood topic.
External observers tend to focus on “whether Iran is developing nuclear weapons,” but the real structural question is: Iran’s motivation for nuclear capability is defensive, while America’s goal is to permanently prevent Iran from having regional hegemony. These two objectives are fundamentally incompatible.
The Technical Timeline of Nuclear Capability
Iran’s nuclear program began in the 1950s, during the pro-American Pahlavi dynasty, when the United States supported Iran’s nuclear energy development. After the 1979 revolution, the program continued, with objectives shifting from civilian to potentially military use.
IAEA investigations show Iran did have an “organized” weapons-related research program before 2003. Whether Iran continued weaponsization work after 2003 remains disputed—and this is precisely the crux of the longstanding IAEA-Iran deadlock.
JCPOA: The Fragile Consensus of 2015
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), reached in 2015, was one of the most complex multilateral arms control agreements since the Cold War’s end. Its core terms:
Iran’s commitments:
- Reduced centrifuge numbers from ~19,000 to 5,060
- Limited uranium enrichment purity to 3.67% (civilian grade)
- Reduced low-enriched uranium stockpile by 97%
- Allowed IAEA deep inspection of 16 nuclear facilities
US/Western commitments:
- Lifted UN, EU, and US sanctions in phased manner
- Restored access to tens of billions in frozen Iranian assets
Why the Agreement Ultimately Collapsed
Step 1: Israeli opposition. The Netanyahu government persistently opposed JCPOA, insisting Iran would “legally” acquire nuclear weapons after 2030 even if compliant. On May 8, 2018, Trump withdrew from JCPOA, citing materials from a Netanyahu presentation.
Step 2: Consequences of America’s unilateral withdrawal. Leaving the deal was not merely a policy choice—it destroyed the credibility of negotiation itself. Iran now faced a superpower willing to tear up agreements unilaterally. This directly accelerated Iran’s partial nuclear activities.
Step 3: The failure of “Maximum Pressure.” America’s “maximum pressure” campaign did not force Iran to negotiate a new deal. Instead, it strengthened Iran’s “resistive economy” and regional proxy strategies. By 2022, Iran’s uranium enrichment had reached 84% purity—one step from weapons-grade (90%).
The Current Deadlock
In 2023-2024, both sides attempted to restore JCPOA through indirect negotiations, repeatedly failing. Core obstacles:
- US position: Iran must stop enrichment activities first before sanctions relief can resume
- Iran’s position: The US must lift “terrorism-related” sanctions first (not nuclear-related sanctions)
- The Israel factor: Any deal to restore JCPOA will face fierce Israeli opposition
This deadlock is difficult to break in the short term. Iran’s nuclear footsteps won’t stop, American sanctions won’t be lifted, and the Middle East’s powder keg continues to smolder.
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